In January we published our Alberta real estate forecast for 2026. We called for modest growth. Prices up 1 to 3 percent. Steady sales. No drama.
We are now past the halfway mark. Time to check the forecast against reality. Some of it held up. Some of it did not. Here is what the data actually shows for Calgary and the communities around it.
Calgary at mid-year: softer than forecast
The benchmark price for a Calgary home was $569,200 in July, down 2 percent from a year ago (CREB, as of July 2026). Sales came in at 1,904 homes, 9 percent below last year. New listings fell too, down 15 percent. Months of supply sits at 3.5. That is a balanced market overall, but the average hides a big split by property type.
- Detached homes are holding best. The benchmark is $743,900, down under 2 percent from last year, with about three months of supply.
- Semi-detached homes are essentially flat at $691,000, right where they were a year ago.
- Townhouses and row homes are softer. The benchmark is $418,500, down 6 percent, and sales are down 15 percent so far this year.
- Apartment condos are the weak spot. The benchmark is $297,600, down more than 8 percent from last year and 13 percent below the 2024 peak. Sales are down nearly 26 percent year-to-date (CREB, as of July 2026).
Why are condos lagging? Supply. CREB’s chief economist points to several years of heavy construction plus slowing migration, with more than 17,000 apartment-style units still under construction. That new supply keeps pressure on prices for higher-density homes.
The inner-city exception
Here is the part most headlines miss. While prices fell across most of Calgary, CREB’s district data shows detached prices actually improved year over year in the City Centre and West districts. Semi-detached prices in the City Centre held stable too. The steepest declines happened in the North East.
We wrote earlier this year that inner-city Calgary is not one market. This is what that looks like in the data. A well-located inner-city detached home is having a very different 2026 than a suburban condo.
One caution before inner-city sellers get too comfortable. Prices holding does not mean buyers are rushing. Even in the strongest pockets, buyers are viewing more homes, taking their time, and moving with less urgency than we have seen in five years. Homes still sell, but sharp pricing is what separates the ones that sell from the ones that sit.
The towns around Calgary are adjusting harder
Detached benchmark prices in July: Airdrie $603,100, down 4 percent. Cochrane $659,400, down nearly 4 percent. Okotoks $695,700, down 2 percent. Chestermere $771,900, down nearly 5 percent (CREB, as of July 2026). New home construction in and around these communities is competing directly with resale listings, and the price gap between Calgary and its surrounding towns is moving back toward historical norms.
What we got right, and what we missed
We got the shape right: no crash, no boom, detached strongest, condos weakest. We wrote about the condo supply story in December in our post on Calgary’s record condo supply, and that call has aged well.
We missed on direction. We expected slight growth. The first half delivered slight declines instead. The difference is not dramatic, but it is real, and you deserve the honest version.
What this means if you are buying
This is the most buyer-friendly condo market Calgary has seen in years. Nearly five months of apartment supply means more choice, more room to negotiate, and sellers accepting conditions again. If you have been waiting for leverage, it is here. Start with our guide on what closing costs actually run in Calgary so your budget is complete.
What this means if you are selling
Detached and semi-detached sellers in good inner-city locations are still in a solid position. The district data proves it. But pricing is the whole game now. Overprice by 3 percent and you sit. Price correctly and you sell in a normal timeframe. Our post on how to price your Calgary home walks through exactly how we approach it.
If you are selling a condo or townhome, talk to us before you list. Strategy matters more this year than it has in a long time.
The bottom line
2026 is tracking flatter than we forecast in January. Calgary is down slightly, condos are the soft spot, and inner-city detached and semi-detached homes are the quiet exception. None of this is alarming. It is a normal market finding its balance after several unusually strong years.
Wondering what this means for your own home or your next move? Start with a free home evaluation, or reach out through our website. We will walk through your numbers, not the headlines.