Anyone can sound right about the real estate market after the fact. So here is something different. We have written a monthly letter to our clients for more than eight years. Below is what we actually told our readers, quoted word for word with dates, what happened next, and where we got it wrong. As of August 2026, here is the tape.
April 2022: we said the frenzy would cool by summer
“Starting January 1, the market really took off because of low inventory and huge demand from buyers. This created multiple offer situations on nearly all homes priced ‘reasonably well’. This trend is continuing today, but we are seeing a very large number of new listings hitting the market each week, which should cool things off for Q2 as buyers find homes and as many more homes come to market.”
Our client letter, April 14, 2022
What happened: the frenzy peaked that spring. The Bank of Canada had just started raising rates, the supply wave landed, and by the second half of 2022 the multiple-offer fever was gone. Called it while the fever was still on.
August 2022: “it will cost you more to wait”
“Here’s the truth – it’ll cost you more to wait. Some clients have said they wish to wait until prices come down before buying. With the speed of the rate increases, this will actually work against you. If the prices do come down, the higher interest paid will actually cost you more, with the addition of a higher monthly mortgage payment… The Bank of Canada will likely increase rates two more times before the end of the year. This recent 1% rate increase from July 13 works out to $54 per month per $100k borrowed.”
Our client letter, August 3, 2022
What happened: the Bank of Canada raised rates three more times in 2022, not two. We undersold our own call. Calgary prices dipped only briefly, then benchmark prices rose more than 7% in 2024 (CREB). Buyers who waited paid more for the home and more for the money. This is the call we would frame a listing presentation around, because it was made at the exact moment waiting felt safest.
August 2024: we flagged the supply turn a year early
In August 2024, with the market still feeling like a seller’s market, our letter flagged that inventory had crossed 4,000 units for the first time in nearly two years, with most of the growth above $600,000. That supply build became the defining story of 2025. By November 2025, inventory reached 5,581 units and the benchmark price sat near $559,000, about 5% below the year before (CREB, November 2025).
March 2025: we called the balanced market before the data confirmed it
“We’re moving into a more stable, balanced market. Buyers have more options and are taking their time. Sellers need to ensure their property is on point when showing and are entering the market with a sharp pricing strategy.”
Our client letter, April 2025
By July 2025 we were telling sellers to price off comparable sales from the last 60 to 90 days because “numbers from 2024 are no longer comparable.” The fall data proved it: benchmark prices finished 2025 down about 5% year over year, and by mid-2026 CREB itself described the market as balanced. We keep the current numbers updated monthly on our Calgary market update page.
July 2025: we called the apartment buyer’s market four months early
“The market has largely balanced out, with one notable exception: apartments are now in a buyer’s market having more inventory than demand.”
Our client letter, July 2025
What happened: by November 2025 the apartment benchmark was down 7% year over year on record-high inventory, roughly six months of supply (CREB). By 2026, “apartments oversupplied” was the consensus headline. Our readers had a four-month head start.
Where we were wrong
A track record only means something if it includes the misses.
The Edmonton call. In August 2024 we told readers Edmonton was “up next for a boom.” The direction was right: through 2025, Edmonton’s benchmark rose 2.8% overall and detached rose 5.2%, while Calgary’s fell about 5%. But a boom it was not, and Edmonton apartment condos fell too. Right direction, wrong amplitude.
Pre-construction condos. In 2023 and 2024 we featured several pre-construction condo projects with an optimistic investor framing. The apartment market then turned into the deepest buyer’s market in the city. Those projects deliver in 2027, so the final grade is incomplete, but we would write those sections more cautiously today, and our current advice on condos reflects that.
Why we publish this
More than 75% of our business comes from repeat clients and referrals. That only works if our advice holds up after the fact, so we think it should be checkable. We write what we see, we date it, and we let the record stand.
If you want our current read on your home and your street, not last year’s headlines, start with a free home evaluation or browse our community guides.
Sources: CREB monthly statistics (2022 to 2026), REALTORS Association of Edmonton year-end 2025 report, Bank of Canada rate announcements. Quotes are verbatim from our monthly client letters, verified against the sent issues.